Hurricane KRISTY

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HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
CENTER WHILE LOSING ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW INDICATES A NEARLY CIRCULAR SYSTEM
WITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE.  T-NUMBERS WERE 4.0 FROM SAB...
4.5 FROM TAFB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT
AND AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITIES AND A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES AT
0200 AND 0330 UTC WHICH INDICATED AN EYEWALL COULD BE DEVELOPING
UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLOW...ABOUT 315/5.  KRISTY AND HURRICANE
JOHN ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 NM APART AT NEARLY THE SAME LATITUDE. 
AT THIS DISTANCE...SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE.  IF A BINARY INTERACTION OCCURS...BECAUSE
KRISTY IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXHIBIT
ERRATIC AND SLOW MOTION...PROBABLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF JOHN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...AND
SUGGESTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND KRISTY REMAINS OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 26
CELSIUS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80 KT.  BEYOND THAT TIME KRISTY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH
THE FUTURE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ANY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 17.6N 116.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W    80 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W    75 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL
 
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