Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND LACKS A
CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. 
THERE ARE BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT...BUT THESE
ARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR
30 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED
SIGNIFICANTLY THUS FAR...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY
WARM...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE...ONCE THE
SYSTEM ACQUIRES AN INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN DECREASE IN STRENGTH
SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE NEAR/OVER COOLER WATERS...
PARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SOMEWHAT NORTH OF MY PROJECTED TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
THE LATTER MODEL AT DAYS 3-5.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 12 KT.  SOME
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IN THE VICINITY OF 115-120W.  OTHERWISE A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE FORTHCOMING.  LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON 5-E.  THE U.K.
MODEL ELONGATES THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
IS UNABLE TO TRACK A DISTINCT CENTER WHILE THE NOGAPS SPLITS THE
SYSTEM IN TWO.  ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS
MAINTAIN A COHERENT STRUCTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND DEEP/MEDIUM BAM
PREDICTIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 12.4N 111.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N 112.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 114.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N 116.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 12.9N 118.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 13.5N 126.5W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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