Tropical Depression IKE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
AND HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
SURFACE DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IKE...WITH AN AREA OF
25-35 KT WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS
IS THE FIRST SIGN OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IKE WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WITH IKE
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A LARGER LOW IN
ABOUT 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/26.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE LARGER LOW
AT VERY HIGH LATITUDE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IKE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 
FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 36.4N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 40.4N  87.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 45.6N  76.5W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 50.0N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 55.0N  52.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     17/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN