FZUS81 KCLE 072235 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES BREAK-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 536 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008 NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURRED DURING THE WINTER OF 2007-2008 ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GREAT LAKES WERE SPLIT IN HALF BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKES REGION SAW TEMPERATURES THAT AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 2007 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2008. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKES HAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FALL BROUGHT TEMPERATURES THAT RAN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AVERAGED ABOUT 3 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BETWEEN -3 AND PLUS 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN LAKES REGION. A COLD AIR OUTBREAK HIT THE REGION DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 3 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE LAKES...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 9 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST THREE WEEKS OF DECEMBER SAW A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE LAKES REGION. THE JANUARY THAW HELD TRUE BY THE SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARM SPELL WAS SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGED BACK TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WERE BETWEEN 3 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. FEBRUARY ALMOST MIRRORED JANUARY WITH A WARMING TREND IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES 9 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN FELL BACK TO 9 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE THIRD AND FOURTH WEEKS. THE MILD FALL APPEARED TO KEEP THE WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UP UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER SEASON. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STORMY CONDITIONS THAT HIT THE AREA DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY HELPED TO MIX THE WATER WITH THE AIR AND ULTIMATELY REDUCE WATER TEMPERATURES FAIRLY RAPIDLY. RAPID ICE FORMATION OCCURRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE COLD AIR OUT BREAK IN DECEMBER. THE ICE THAT FORMED WAS RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS STORMY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAUSED THE ICE TO BREAK UP. FURTHER COLD SPELLS CAUSED THE WATER IN THE PROTECTED BAYS...RIVERS AND ALL OF LAKE ERIE TO FINALLY SUCCUMB TO ICE FORMATION. THE ENTIRE GREEN BAY INCLUDING THE BAYS DENOC...SAGINAW BAY...AND ALL OF LAKE ERIE ICED OVER AND REMAINS ICE COVERED AT THIS TIME. THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALSO ACCUMULATED ICE COVER AS WELL. ALL BUT THE CENTRAL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON ACCUMULATED ICE ALONG THE SHORES. LAKE MICHIGAN REMAINED NEARLY ICE FREE WITH SOME MINOR ICE IN THE SOUTHEAST SHORE AND THE NORTH SHORE. THE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN OF 2007-2008 WAS RATHER STAGNANT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM REMAINED LOCKED INTO A FALL AND EARLY WINTER TRACK. NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS DEVELOPED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OR THE DELTA REGION OF THE GULF COAST AND TRACKED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OSCILLATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE WINTER. THE OSCILLATION CAUSED THE CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKES REGION AS WARM AIR WAS PUMPED INTO THIS REGION. THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD REPORTED MINOR ICE BREAKING OPERATIONS TOOK PLACE DURING THE WINTER MONTHS BUT WILL BE HEAVILY ENGAGED IN OPENING AND MAINTAINING CRITICAL WATERWAYS THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN NOW AND THE OPENING OF THE SHIPPING SEASON ON MARCH 25TH WHEN THE SOO LOCKS ARE SCHEDULED TO BE OPENED. TWO OPERATIONS ARE UNDERWAY FOR ICE BREAKING. OPERATION TACONITE...BASED OUT OF SAULT STE. MARIE MICHIGAN AND OPERATION COAL SHOVEL BASED OUT OF DETROIT MICHIGAN WILL BE WORKING HAND IN HAND WITH THE CANADIAN COAST GUARD DURING THIS IMPORTANT TIME OF THE YEAR. THE COAST GUARD ALSO REPORTED THE FOLLOWING MAJOR WATERWAYS IN WHICH THEY WILL BE BREAKING OUT THE SHIPPING LANES...DULUTH MINNESOTA... WHITEFISH BAY...ST. MARYS RIVER...LIVINGSTONE CHANNEL...AND THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. THE SEASONAL FREEZING DEGREE DAYS AS OF MARCH 6TH ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE EASTERN LAKES WERE JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE COMPARISON OF EACH STATION TO NORMAL... FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS THROUGH THE DAY (MARCH 06 2008) COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR THAT DAY: LOCATION 2008 NORM LOCATION 2008 NORM ------------------------------ ------------------------------ DULUTH, MN 2136 2034 MUSKEGON, MI 457 576 MARQUETTE, MI 1726 1284 ALPENA, MI 1035 1042 SAULT STE MARIE, MI 1285 1562 DETROIT, MI 346 481 GREEN BAY, WI 1363 1290 TOLEDO, OH 396 436 MILWAUKEE, WI 727 799 CLEVELAND, OH 249 297 CHICAGO, IL 600 491 BUFFALO, NY 315 533 FLUSHING OF THE ICE IN THE RIVERS NORMALLY BEGINS IN THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. THE MAIN RIVERS WERE STILL AFFECTED BY ICE AS OF MARCH 6TH. THE 30 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 30 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES THERE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKES WHILE THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE NO STRONG INDICATION OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 90 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES THERE WILL BE NO STRONG TREND WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL MARCH THROUGH MAY. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES MARCH THROUGH MAY. THE 30 DAY ICE OUTLOOK INDICATES ICE WILL CONTINUE TO GROW ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM THE SHORES OF LAKES HURON...MICHIGAN...AND SUPERIOR. ICE ALREADY IN PLACE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 30 DAYS. AS THE SUN ANGLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT COULD OCCUR IN APRIL...THE ICE WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO ITS NATURAL DECAY CYCLE DUE TO GRADUAL WARMING OF THE WATER AND SUN PENETRATION INTO THE ICE. STORMS WILL AID IN BREAKING UP THE ICE FIELDS AS THEY WEAKEN. ICE CONDITIONS CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED BY STRONG WINDS AND SUNSHINE. PERSISTENT WINDS INTO A WATERWAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN JAMMING FROM ICE FLOES. ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS OUT OF A WATERWAY WILL FLUSH THE REMAINING ICE INTO THE OPEN WATER WHERE MELTING MAY OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE. LARGE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE CAN HELP BREAK UP THE LARGE ICE FLOES MORE QUICKLY THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ICE OUTLOOKS ISSUED ON MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND FRIDAY FROM THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE ICE BECOMES INSIGNIFICANT TO SHIPPING. $$ LOMBARDY