FZHW50 PHFO 200455 SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 700 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2008 HIZ005>011-201900- OAHU- 700 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2008 SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT... DIMINISHING TO HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT... LOWERING TO HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY SEP 25: NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2008 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 3 N 10 4 6 SAME 7-10 E SAME 09/19 SAT 2 NW 12 2 4 UP LOW 7-10 E UP 09/20 3 N 9 4 6 DOWN MED SUN 2 NNW 10 2 4 SAME LOW 11-16 E UP 09/21 MON 2 NNW 9 2 4 DOWN LOW 11-16 E SAME 09/22 4 E 6 2 2 UP LOW TUE 4 E 7 2 2 SAME LOW 11-16 E SAME 09/23 WED 4 E 7 2 2 SAME LOW 7-10 E DOWN 09/24 LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... SMALL EPISODE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NORTHERN SHORES. DETAILED... MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS SMALL BREAKERS RELATIVE TO NORTH SHORE STANDARDS FROM 350-010 DEGREES. THIS EPISODE SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE INTO SUNDAY. IT WAS GENERATED BY NEAR GALE TO GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING AWAY FROM HAWAII ABOUT 1500 NM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS PAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUCH A PATH REDUCED SURF POTENTIAL SINCE DURATION OVER A GIVEN AREA OF OCEAN WAS LIMITED. A COMPACT GALE APPROACHED THE DATELINE TUESDAY OVER 2000 NM OUT AND WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED OVER THE ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORT-LIVED...TINY TO SMALL EPISODE IS EXPECTED LOCALLY...RISING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 320-330 DEGREES AND DROPPING INTO MONDAY FROM 330-340 DEGREES. THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC PATTERNS IS LEANING BACK TOWARDS A SUMMER PATTERN PRESENTLY...WITH NO SURF BEYOND TINY EXPECTED LOCALLY FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS LOW SURF EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO N SWELL. GENTLE TRADES ARE ALLOWING SEA BREEZES. TRADES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY TO LOW-END MODERATES FOR SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...THEN FALL BACK TOWARD GENTLE BREEZES MID WEEK. WINDSWELL SHOULD STAY LOW. MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS TINY TO SMALL BREAKERS. SIMILAR SURF EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTO THE LONG RANGE...A FAST-MOVING GALE SE OF NEW ZEALAND TODAY COULD GIVE A SHORT-LIVED SMALL EPISODE FROM 180-190 DEGREES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...MOST MODELS SUGGEST TROPICAL SYSTEM SINLAKU WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT LEAVES THE VICINITY OF JAPAN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO SURF EXPECTED LOCALLY. A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE BEYOND 1500 NM OUT COULD GIVE A TINY TO SMALL NNW TO N EPISODE NEXT THURSDAY. STRONGER SYSTEMS ARE MODELLED IN THE FAR NW PACIFIC MID NEXT WEEK...GIVING WAY TO SMALL NW TO NNW SURF AROUND 9/29. GENTLE TRADES ARE MODELLED FOR LATE NEXT WORK WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE SUBJECT TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THE NEXT COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY...SEPTEMBER 22. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS FORECASTER HOUSTON AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL