FXUS64 KCRP 200901
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
401 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE
AND TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN GULF WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE
W/ THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOC W/ S/W CURRENTLY MVG THROUGH BASE OF AN UPR TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE MID WEST TO CEN TEXAS ALONG W/ A WEAK JET MAX OVR THE
COASTAL BEND WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SHRA ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS WHERE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ARE GREATER.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLD ACTIVITY AGAIN ON
SUN...BUT CHCS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER AS UPR SUPPORT LEAVES THE
AREA. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER IF MENTION OF TSTMS IS
WARRANTED FOR LAND BASED ZONES EITHER TODAY OR SUN. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS AND APPEARS FOG
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE 
WEEK.  A MORE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS BY TUESDAY AND GFS 
PROGS PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75IN ALONG THE COAST.  WITH THE 
RETURN OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS NAM KEEPS BULK 
OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF (WAS 
THE WETTER OF THE MODELS IN PREVIOUS RUNS). LATER IN THE WEEK 
SUBSIDENCE RETURNS TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
SW U.S. BUILDS EAST. HOWEVER...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER 
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE END OF 
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  69  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10 
VICTORIA          90  66  90  67  90  /  10  10  10  10  10 
LAREDO            93  71  94  71  94  /   0   0  10  10  10 
ALICE             91  67  92  67  91  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          87  72  90  73  89  /  20  10  10  10  10 
COTULLA           93  66  93  68  92  /   0   0  10  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       86  74  87  72  89  /  20  10  20  10  10 
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM