FXUS62 KTAE 200638
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN 
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AN 
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND 
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE LEADING EDGE AS 
OF 06Z WAS EAST OF LAKE CITY AND NOT MAKING MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS 
AS IT IS ENCOUNTERING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.  
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH A 
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND SHOW IT 
TRANSLATING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO 
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. BY LATE MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL 
REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO 
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE FIELDS...THE 
NAM AND THE EURO ARE MORE BULLISH ON BRINGING A RETURN OF DEEP 
MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE 
GFS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SHOWS MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE 
CONFINED BELOW 700 MB. WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY 
ADVERTISED POPS. FOR TODAY...WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
CORNER OF OUR CWA TO LOWER CHANCE AS SOME OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION 
MAY EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...A 
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE FRINGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. WILL 
KEEP THE TAPER OF POPS FORM SLIGHT NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH 
CHANCE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL 
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.   
&& 
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE OVER THE 
EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AS ITS LIFTS 
LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THUS...A CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEW 
ENGLAND REINFORCING DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT REPLACES TROUGH. RIDGE
THEN STRENGTHEN AND DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE A 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FORECAST AREA. AT SAME TIME... 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE OF GA/SC COAST. 
THIS COMBINATION WILL TIGHTEN LOCAL GRADIENTS...ENHANCE LOCAL EAST 
TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND ADVECT INCREASINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR 
(ESPECIALLY MID-UPR LEVELS) FROM THE NORTHEAST TO ACROSS CWA THROUGH 
SATURDAY WHEN LOW FINALLY BEGINS LIFTING NWD ALONG COAST. AS RIDGE 
DROPS SWD...A WEDGE MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD BRING LOW STRATUS AND 
DRIZZLE SWWD IMPACTING MAINLY EAST OF APALACHICOLA RIVER. ALL THIS 
REFLECTED IN MEX WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THRU PERIOD. POPS WILL 
ALSO GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH ERN ZONES BEST CHANCES AND NOTED 
E-W GRADIENT.  
&& 
.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL 
MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY 
OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS. 
&&
.AVIATION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK 
SPREAD EAST AS IT THINNED OUT. LIKEWISE...INCREASING JAX RADAR AND 
SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE EAST SPREADING WEST 
REACHING EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS 
REMAINING UP...LOW STRATUS CIGS MORE LIKELY THAN VSBYS RESTRICTIONS. 
VFR LIKELY AT KPFN...OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT IFR 
POSSIBLE AT KVLD. CONDS EXPECTED 09Z-14Z. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOULD 
SURVIVE WEST OF I-75 SO WILL ADD VCSH IN KVLD TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. 
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ON FRIDAY DROPPED INLAND RH BRIEFLY 
TO AROUND 35 PERCENT IN FL AND 25 PERCENT IN GA....INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD 
KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  87 65 87 69 87/ 10 10 30 20 40
PANAMA CITY  88 68 88 69 87/ 10 10 30 20 40
DOTHAN       84 62 84 64 85/ 10 10 20 20 30
ALBANY       83 62 85 66 87/ 10 10 20 20 30
VALDOSTA     85 64 85 66 86/ 10 10 30 20 40
CROSS CITY   88 66 88 69 88/ 30 20 40 30 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BARRY/BLOCK