FXUS62 KMHX 201056
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
656 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
AREA FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS HANGING JUST OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORN ASSOCD WITH ELONGATED BUT DEEPENING LOW PRES TROF WELL OFF
THE SE COAST. PCPN WILL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IT ROTATES INTO DRIER
AIR OVR INLAND AREAS BUT A FEW SHWRS SHUD MOVE OVER CNTRL OBX AND
POSSIBLY INTO AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 GIVEN THE COLUMN MOISTENING
AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TODAY. SC DECK SHUD BE
MORE EXTENSIVE TODAY GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. A
SLIGHT RISE IN LOW LVL THICKNESS WILL BE OFFSET BY ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SO EXPECT HIGHS SIMILIAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY M-U70S
WITH A FEW INLAND SPOTS MAYBE REACHING 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES PUSHES FARTHER OUT TO SEA TNGT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
GRADUALLY WORK BACK INTO THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HANG
ONTO SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS FOR CSTL AREAS TNGT THEN LOWERING TO JUST
SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT
KEEPING PCPN MAINLY OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS A BIT
WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGHS
GENERALLY U70S/L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE NE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THRU MIDWEEK SO A PERSISTANCE FCST WILL BE MAINTAINED GIVEN THE
BLOCKY PATN. EXPECT MOST PCPN ASSOCD WITH TROFFINESS OFF SE COAST
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO SEASONAL NORMS. THE BLOCKED 
PATN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDS THE LOW PRES TROF OFF THE SE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LVL STRATUS SINKING INTO THE REGION WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO
AROUND 2K FT. BY DAYBREAK COULD SEE CEILINGS DROP TO 1K FT OR
LESS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXP MOSTLY
CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE BKN/OVC 4K FT CEILINGS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT...WITH NO FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY COME DOWN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LAG IN WINDS SUN-MON...BUT AS THE SECOND AND
STRONG HIGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST...LOOK FOR TIGHTENING PRES
GRAD TO RETURN STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
PRES GRAD STILL TIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH LOW PRES OFFSHORE AND
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL START TO SLIDE E LATER
TODAY THROUGH SUN...RELAXING THE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE INTO MON. FOR TODAY LOOK FOR WINDS STILL IN THE STRONG
SCA RANGE EARLY...AND SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES 
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND 
POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION/OVERWASH FROM HATTERAS NORTH THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON. EVEN ONCE THE CONDITIONS DROP...STILL LOOKING
AT HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS.
THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NE ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTH OF LOOKOUT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SEAS REMAINING AT CRITERIA NORTH OF LOOKOUT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER STRONG HIGH
WILL BE BUILD TO THE NORTH WITH MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH BY MIDWEEK. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK/INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATING THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE. THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT OR EVEN HIGHER. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND AND PERHAPS A MINOR SOUND SIDE
FLOODING EVENT ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS. WIND ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE
IS THE CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW COMING OUT OF THE S FOR THE
FRI/SAT. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD DRAG OUT THE POOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR MARINERS
IN THIS WINTER-TYPE PATTERN. THE WARM WATERS ARE ALLOWING FOR
STRONG MIXING AND STRONG GUSTY NE WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
.RIP CURRENTS...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RIP 
THREAT FOR ALL EAST FACING BEACHES FROM LOOKOUT NORTH AND A LOW THREAT 
FROM SURF CITY TO BOGUE INLET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ