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August 23, 2005
NASA/NOAA ANNOUNCE MAJOR WEATHER FORECASTING ADVANCEMENT
NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today outlined research that has helped to improve the accuracy of
medium-range weather forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere.
NASA and NOAA scientists at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) in Camp Springs, Md., came up with procedures to improve
forecasting accuracy. The scientists worked with experimental data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua
satellite.
They found incorporating AIRS data into numerical weather prediction models improves the accuracy range of experimental six-day Northern
Hemisphere weather forecasts by up to six hours, a four percent increase. AIRS is a high-spectral resolution infrared instrument that takes 3-D
pictures of atmospheric temperatures, water vapor and trace gases.
The instrument data have officially been incorporated into NOAA’s National Weather Service’s operational weather forecasts.
“NASA is assisting the world’s weather prediction agencies by providing very detailed, accurate observations of key atmospheric
variables that interact to shape our weather and climate,” said Dr. Mary Cleave, associate administrator for NASA’s Science Mission
Directorate. “The forecast improvement accomplishment alone makes the AIRS project well worth the American taxpayers’
investment.”
“This AIRS instrument has provided the most significant increase in forecast improvement in this time range of any other single
instrument,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA
administrator.
“Climate and weather forecasts are dependent upon our understanding current global ocean and atmosphere conditions. If we want to be able to
predict what the weather will be like in the future, we must adequately define the global conditions today. Satellite data, like AIRS provides, is a
vital link for NOAA to take the pulse of the planet continuously,” added Lautenbacher.
“A four-percent increase in forecast accuracy at five or six days normally takes several years to achieve,” said JSCDA Director, Dr.
John LeMarshall. “This is a major advancement, and it is only the start of what we may see as much more data from this instrument is
incorporated into operational forecast models at the NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.”
Research Meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd of NASA Goddard remarks that “accurate weather forecasts depend on knowing what the atmosphere
looks like before and during the forecast period.” AIRS data can provide 3-D temperature or moisture data at space and time resolutions needed
for initialization or assimilation in models. Shepherd notes that “such data mitigates gaps or missing data typical of conventional techniques
like weather balloons or soundings.”
The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts began incorporating data from AIRS into their operational forecasts in October 2003. The
center reported an improvement in forecast accuracy of eight hours in Southern Hemisphere five-day forecasts.
AIRS is the result of more than 30 years of atmospheric research and is led by Dr. Moustafa Chahine of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
Pasadena, Calif. AIRS is the first in a series of advanced infrared sounders that will provide accurate, detailed atmospheric temperature and
moisture observations for weather and climate applications.
The JCSDA is operated by NOAA, NASA, the U.S. Air Force and Navy. The goals of the center are to accelerate the use of observations from
Earth-orbiting satellites to improve weather and climate forecasts, and to increase the accuracy of climate data sets.
For more information and related images, please visit on the Internet:
http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/
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Contact:
Rob Gutro
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
(Phone: 301/286-4044)
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