May
23, 2007
HURRICANE
RISKS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR
MOST U.S.
COASTS
Much of
the nation's Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines face substantially
higher-than-normal risks for hurricanes in 2007, according to an
analysis by a University
of Central Florida
researcher and his Georgia
colleague.
Nationally,
Carteret County
on the North Carolina
coastline has the
highest probability of hurricane-force winds in 2007 at 22.4 percent,
according
to the analysis by UCF statistics professor Mark Johnson and Chuck
Watson, a Georgia
researcher who founded the Kinetic
Analysis Corp. of Silver Spring, Md.
Louisiana's Terrebonne Parish
is second at
21.2 percent. St. Lucie and Martin counties in Florida rank
third and fourth, respectively,
at 20.8 percent and 20.7 percent. Charleston
County,
S.C., and Indian River
County, Fla.,
tied for fifth at 20.1 percent.
Johnson
and Watson based their analysis on statistical models that incorporate
the
paths of storms from the past 155 years, along with models using the
actual
climate conditions for January through May 2007 that compute the
expected
global climate conditions for the rest of the year. The researchers
have worked
together for 10 years on probability analyses for hurricanes and have
released
their projections for the past eight years.
Johnson
is an expert in the statistical aspects of hurricane modeling and
forecasting.
Watson specializes in developing hazard models based on engineering and
geophysics. They collaborate on a Web site, http://hurricane.methaz.org
that tracks
storms worldwide with hourly updates, shows estimates of disruptions to
oil and
gas production and projects property damage along the storms’
anticipated paths.
"Because
so much of the U.S.
and Florida
coastlines are
at higher risks for hurricanes, residents need to prepare carefully for
the
upcoming storm season," Johnson said. "Residents also should expect
gas prices to potentially climb higher if the expected disruptions to Gulf of Mexico oil and gas
production materialize in
2007."
The
combination of La Niña weather conditions that are expected
to develop
throughout the summer and warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean temperatures
increase the chances of
hurricanes and disruptions in oil and gas production.
Of the
852 counties included in the analysis, the probability of
hurricane-force winds
(74 mph or greater) this year is 15 percent or greater in 61 counties.
In an
average year, only six counties face probabilities of at least 15
percent.
The 20
counties with the highest probabilities for hurricane-force winds
include 10 in
Florida, eight in North Carolina, one in Louisiana and
one in South
Carolina.
To
develop estimates for oil-and-gas production, the researchers operate a
computer model that includes every oil platform, pipeline, refinery and
terminal in the Gulf of Mexico.
The model
simulated how every storm since 1851 would have affected oil and gas
infrastructure based on 2007 locations.
In those
simulations, at least one week’s worth of production in the
Gulf has been
disrupted in 98 percent of the years with La Niña conditions.
Johnson
and Watson have developed maps to support local mitigation strategies
for the
State of Florida,
developed data for Caribbean
governments in an effort funded by the
Organization of American States and researched hurricane damage models
used in
the insurance industry. Watson is assisting the Intergovernmental Panel
on
Climate Change, and Watson and Johnson are actively working on research
on the
potential impact of climate change on hurricanes and hurricane damage
frequencies.
They also
have worked as consultants to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss
Projection Methodology, which reviews and accepts public and private
hurricane
insurance models.
##
Contact:
Chad
Binette
University
of
Central Florida
407-823-6312
cbinette@mail.ucf.edu
This
text
derived from:
http://www.ucf.edu/
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