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May
21, 2007 Between 2000 and
2004, worldwide
CO2 emissions increased at a rate that is over three times the rate
during the
1990s—the rate increased from 1.1 % per year during the 1990s
to 3.1% per year
in the early 2000s. The research, published in the early on-line
edition of the
Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, May 21-25, also found that the accelerating growth
rate is
largely due to the increasing energy intensity of economic activity
(the energy
required to produce a unit of gross domestic product) and the carbon
intensity
of the energy system (the amount of carbon per unit of energy), coupled
with
increases in population and in per-capita gross domestic product.
“No region is
de-carbonizing its energy supply,” states the study. The research showed
that the
increases in energy and carbon intensity constitute a reversal of a
long-term
trend toward greater energy efficiency and reduced carbon intensities.
"Despite
the scientific consensus that carbon emissions are affecting the
world’s
climate, we are not seeing evidence of progress in managing those
emissions in
either the developed or developing countries. In many parts of the
world, we
are going backwards," remarked co-author of the study Chris Field,
director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology. The research also
shows that the
actual global emissions since 2000 grew faster than in the highest of
the
scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
“The trends relating energy to economic growth are definitely
headed in the
wrong direction,” Field commented. The acceleration of
carbon
emissions is greatest in the exploding economies of developing regions,
particularly Between 2000 and
2004 the
developing countries accounted for a large majority of the growth in
emissions,
even though they contribute only about 40% of total emissions. In 2004,
73% of
the growth in global emissions came from the developing and least
developed
economies, comprising 80% of the world’s population. That
same year the
developed areas (including the Former Soviet Union), contributed about
60% to
the total emissions. These countries account for 77% of the cumulative
emissions since the start of the industrial revolution. Between 1980 and
2004, total
emissions in the developed areas ( The study emphasizes
that the
growth in emissions can be caused by a variety of factors and that
managing
emissions in a growing economy requires progress in both the energy
intensity
of the economic system and the carbon intensity of the energy system.
According
to Field, "solving the first part of the puzzle requires shifting more
of
the economy toward activities like service industries and information
technology, where emissions can be lower, and emphasizing energy
efficiency.
Solving the second requires deploying new sources of non-emitting
energy like wind,
solar, and nuclear power." Carnegie president
Richard A.
Meserve notes that “the impacts of carbon dioxide in our
atmosphere are the
result of cumulative emissions. This study is a signal that global
action is urgently
needed to reverse the adverse trends or the challenge of responding to
climate
change will be more difficult.”
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