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May
14, 2007 In a first of its
kind study, a
research team based at This is the first
successful
attempt to simulate both weather and air quality due to climate and
land use
changes at a scale that is relevant to local and regional policy
makers. Using
a unique modeling system, the researchers were able to link climate
change,
land use change, and air quality, to predict sprawling development over
this
region in the year 2050 compared to present-day conditions. This new
system
makes it possible for the first time to examine the separate and joint
influences of land use, climate and emissions changes on future
environmental
conditions – and resulting health implications such as asthma
attacks and
difficulty in breathing, ER visits and hospitalizations, and even
increased
risk of death for vulnerable persons. With a population
exceeding 21
million people in the greater NYC metropolitan area, ongoing
urbanization puts
a significant strain on natural resources and impacts air pollution
levels and
regional climate. The study highlights the value of modeling systems
that
quantitatively assess the potential impacts of changes in climate,
emissions
and land use on environmental health in the region. "As more land in
this region
is expected to be converted to human-dominated uses over the coming
decades, it
is of critical importance to evaluate the potential effects on public
health
and welfare," says Patrick Kinney,ScD, associate professor of
Environmental Health Sciences at the Mailman School of Public Health
and principal
investigator of this project. "Furthermore, utilizing the system
described
here for sensitivity simulations even for relatively small areas may be
of
interest to planning organizations that focus on the state, county, or
municipal level." While this study was
focused
mainly on land-use change, earlier research by the team examined the
potential
impacts of climate change on air quality and heat across the
metropolitan area,
as well as potential effects on summertime ozone-related deaths. For
example,
ozone-related deaths in a typical summer could increase by 55 deaths
across the
31 counties of the New York City Metro area due to climate change
alone.
County-specific increases ranged from zero to six deaths/summer, with
the
largest increases occurring in the In a related study
also just
released, Dr. Kinney collaborated with other scientists, including
Michelle
Bell of
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