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May
1, 2007 Aided by
new observations from the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer
(CBLAST) –
Hurricane field program, scientists at the Rosenstiel School of Marine
and
Atmospheric Science have helped to develop and test a new,
high-resolution
computer model to better understand how air-sea interactions directly
affect
hurricane intensity, a factor not yet possible in the current
operational
forecast models. The
research, which is featured in the March 2007 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
(BAMS), explains that current
predictive
models used in forecasting hurricane formation and intensity have
difficulty
accurately representing data such as ocean temperature, surface wind,
rain and
waves, and pressure and wind-speed relationships. A new fully coupled
atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system is capable of forecasting
detailed
hurricane inner-core structure, as well as surface temperature and
wind, ocean
currents, and surface waves that are crucial for improving hurricane
intensity
forecasts. The
CBLAST – Hurricane field program was conducted from 2002 to
2004 using NOAA's
“Hurricane Hunter” aircraft, as well as drifting
buoys and subsurface floats
deployed ahead of Hurricanes Fabian in 2003, and “Measuring
processes near the sea-surface in hurricanes is a challenge! The CBLAST
field
program which brought together many new ideas and techniques has
provided a
wealth of new data that will help us to improve our understanding of
how
hurricanes gain and lose energy,” Drennan said Rosenstiel
scientist Dr. Shuyi Chen, a professor of meteorology and physical
oceanography,
led CBLAST's Hurricane modeling effort. She and other scientists have
developed
a fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean, high-resolution model able to
predict
the structure of a hurricane eye and eyewall at nearly a 1-km
resolution, which
is well within the recommendation for next-generation
hurricane-prediction
models set by the NOAA Science Advisory Board Hurricane Intensity
Research
Working Group. “Extreme
high winds, intense rainfall, large surface waves, strong ocean
currents, and
copious sea spray in hurricanes are all difficult to measure, limiting
our
capability in predicting their effects on hurricane intensity. The new
coupled
model takes into account the fully interactive nature of the atmosphere
and
ocean in tropical storms and represents an important first step toward
developing the next-generation hurricane prediction models,”
Chen said. The
effect of air-sea interactions on hurricane structure and intensity
change is
the main focus of the CBLAST – Hurricane program. The new,
high-resolution
model for hurricane research and prediction is a fully integrative
modeling
system, taking advantage of the new observations from the CBLAST field
program
to account for data from three important aspects of hurricane modeling.
The
overall modeling system is comprised of an atmospheric model, a surface
wave
model, and an ocean circulation model, all of which combine to form an
innovative way of modeling storms. CBLAST –
Hurricane modeling and observation efforts were sponsored by the Office
of
Naval Research (ONR), and involved many scientists from numerous
universities
as well as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA). “It
is one of the most comprehensive studies ever of the way the ocean and
atmosphere interact in hurricanes, offering the scientific community
new
pathways in modeling and observation that will lead to further
predictive
modeling progress. Improved weather forecasting will have global
impacts;
helping every nation affected by hurricanes and typhoons,”
said Dr. Linwood
Vincent, Acting Head of the Ocean, Atmosphere and Space Research
Division of
ONR. The 2005
Hurricane season highlighted the urgent need for better understanding
of the
factors that contribute to hurricane formation and intensity change,
and for
developing future predictive models to improve intensity forecasts.
Scientists
are hoping that with improved predictive science will come better
preparation
and warning for areas affected by tropical storms.
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