![]() |
||
![]() |
![]() |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]()
March
30, 2007 Sobel, the William
E. Umstattd
Professor at the Weatherhead School of Management, began consciously
tithing a
portion of his research time 40 years ago to critical environmental
concerns at
time when those issues were not fashionable in most of academia. In addition to
predictions about
global changes, the researchers also want better forecasting to unravel
"the Quaternary conundrum," which is evidence suggesting that many of
the estimated 1.5 million species on earth are in danger of extinction
from
global warming, yet over the past 2.5 million years little extinction
is
documented in the fossil record. "The simultaneous
widespread
and justified alarm over global warming and changes in biodiversity has
induced
both outstanding scientific research and deplorable pseudoscientific
work,"
said Sobel. Sobel raises
concerns about the
"blurring" of scientific fact with public advocacy and wants public
discussions to center around sound environmental facts. "Where the science
has
limitations that should be noted, too," added Sobel. His concern is that
misinformation or poorly constructed forecasts may divert and reduce
resources
that could be better spent in other areas. Limits of scientific
knowledge
exist with current forecasting models, according to Sobel, and these
need to be
acknowledged when reporting global warming. The concern for
accurate
information and reporting resulted in the article’s lead
authors—Daniel Botkin
from the University of California at Santa Barbara and Henrik Saxe from
the
Danish Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen—to
convene a meeting of
scientists from the United States, Spain, Denmark, the United Kingdom
and
Australia in 2004 in Denmark. Instead of engaging
in "a
war of words" to set the record straight where misconceptions exist in
the
global warming discussion, Sobel said the group reached a consensus to
come up
with prediction tools that "do it right." In the BioScience article, the researchers call
for eight steps to better
forecasting Select one of the
many meanings associated with the
complex concept of biodiversity and target that meaning as the
parameters in a
specific forecast Evaluate and
validate forecasting methods before
applying them to general forecasts Consider the various
factors that might impact
biodiversity from climate change to pressures from humans on the native
habitat
of a species Obtain adequate
information before making
predictions about future outcomes Examine fossil
records to aid in understanding how
some plant and animal species have adapted to changes in their
environments Improve four widely
used techniques in forecasting
that model individuals, groups, integration of species and
environmental
factors and lastly groups or species based on theories Embed ecological
principles in the forecasts based
on air, water and animal and plant life. Develop better
models that improve upon modeling
forecasts called species-area curves that are based on specific number
of
species in relation to their habitat and how climate changes can modify
the
environment Sobel’s
interest in the
environment stems from his work with the U. S. Public Health Service in
the
1960s when he worked on a project that followed a proposal by the Army
Corps of
Engineers to close off the Delaware River when tidal surges from
hurricanes
threatened the water systems of After earning his
doctorate
degree from "I felt from the
very
beginning that as much as I delighted in improving the efficiencies and
effectiveness of operations in business, public agencies and nonprofit
organizations, it was not enough for me," said Sobel. He said he felt not
only an
obligation to do environmental research but gained "great
satisfaction" from doing it. It was at Yale that
environmental
discussions with Botkin started and continued during carpool rides to
the When the two
researchers set out
to improve the environment, the topic was not accepted as a legitimate
research
area on college campuses. "The situation has
changed
dramatically, and it is legitimate in academia now," explained Sobel.
It
has even threaded its way and is accepted as a focus of study in his
research
areas of operations research and operations management.
Recommend this Article to a Friend Back to: News |
Subscribe to the Earth Observatory About the Earth Observatory Contact Us Privacy Policy and Important Notices Responsible NASA Official: Lorraine A. Remer Webmaster: Goran Halusa We're a part of the Science Mission Directorate |