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March
26, 2007 A new climate
modeling study
forecasts the complete disappearance of several existing climates in
tropical
highlands and regions near the poles, while large swaths of the tropics
and
subtropics may develop new climates unlike any seen today. In general, the
models show that
existing climate zones will shift toward higher latitudes and higher
elevations, squeezing out the climates at the extremes--tropical
mountaintops
and the poles--and leaving room for unfamiliar climes and new
ecological niches
around the equator. The work, by
researchers at the The most severely
affected parts
of the world span both heavily populated regions, including the
southeastern
United States, southeastern Asia, and parts of Africa, and known
hotspots of
biodiversity, such as the Amazonian rainforest and African and South
American
mountain ranges. The patterns of
change foreshadow
significant impacts on ecosystems and conservation. "There is a close
correspondence between disappearing climates and areas of
biodiversity,"
says For example, the
Andes, "As this research
shows,
studies integrating paleoclimate data, mathematical modeling and
ecological
principles provide insights into climate cause-and-effect that are of
great
practical consequence," says David Verardo, program director for
paleoclimate at NSF. Williams and his
colleagues
foresee the appearance of novel climate zones on up to 39 percent of
the
world's land surface area by 2100, if current rates of carbon dioxide
and other
greenhouse gas emissions continue, and the global disappearance of up
to 48
percent of current land climates. The underlying
effect is clear,
Williams says. "More carbon dioxide in the air means more risk of
entirely
new climates or climates disappearing." In an effort to keep
up with
climate change, plant and animal species already have begun to move
away from
the equator and toward the colder climates of the poles. In mountain
ecosystems, many lower-mountain species are moving higher--to cooler
spots.
What will happen when they "run out of room" on a mountainside? The question becomes
not just
whether a given climate will still exist, but "will a species be able
to
keep up with its climatic zone?" Williams says.
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