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![]() Oct. 2, 2007 "By 2030 we expect temperatures will rise by about 1 C over Australia compared with the climate of recent decades," says one of the report's authors, CSIRO's Dr Penny Whetton. "The probability of warming exceeding 1 C is 10 to 20 percent for coastal areas and more than 50 percent for inland regions." The amount of warming later this century will depend on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. "If emissions are low we anticipate warming of between 1 C and 2.5 C around 2070, with a best estimate of 1.8 C," Dr Whetton says. "Under a high-emission scenario the best estimate is 3.4 C, with a range of 2.2 C to 5 C. With high emissions, the chance of exceeding 4 C is around 10 percent in most coastal areas and 20 to 50 percent inland. There will also be changes in temperature extremes, with fewer frosts and substantially more days over 35 C." Increasing levels of greenhouse gases are likely to cause decreases in rainfall in the decades to come in southern areas during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and in south-west Western Australia during autumn, compared with conditions over the past century. As with temperature, rainfall projections for later in the century are more dependent on the level of greenhouse gas emissions. "Under the low-emission scenario in 2070, annual rainfall decreases in southern Australian range up to 20 percent, and up to 30 percent under the high-emission scenario," Dr Whetton says. "An increase in the number of dry days is expected across the country. However, when it does rain, it is likely to be more intense," she says. Another of the report's authors, Dr Scott Power from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), says Australia's average temperatures have increased since 1950, the surrounding oceans have warmed and sea levels have risen. Climate Change in Australia will be an important resource for government, business and community groups. "We need to plan ahead, to reduce risks and make the most of any opportunities that may arise as a result of global warming," Dr Power says. "The information in Climate Change in Australia is critical for that planning." Developed by CSIRO and the BoM, in partnership with the Australian Greenhouse Office, through the Australian Climate Change Science Program: the report also states that: droughts are likely to become more frequent, particularly in the south-west; evaporation rates are likely to increase, particularly in the north and east; high-fire-danger weather is likely to increase in the south-east; and, sea levels will continue to rise. Recommend this Article to a Friend Back to: News |
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