August 13, 2003

EU-15: 2003 Grain Forecast by Country

Wheat, Corn and Barley Production Down Sharply

Wheat Situation

FAS/Washington estimates 2003/04 EU-15 wheat production at 94.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.0 million tons from last month, and 9 percent below last year's crop. Harvested area is estimated at 17.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, and 3 percent below last year's level. The yield for this year's crop is estimated to be 5.49 tons per hectare, substantially lower than last year's level of 5.84 tons per hectare.

Winter crop planting conditions were generally favorable in western Europe last autumn, with the exception of excessive moisture in southern Germany. Winter and spring moisture levels in Spain were extremely favorable, and growing conditions were near normal in Italy and the United Kingdom. March and April were unusually dry in France and Germany. Abnormally high temperatures throughout the month of June damaged dry, vulnerable fields in northeastern Europe.

France is the largest wheat producer in the European Union, followed by Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain. These five countries usually produce around 85 percent of all the wheat in the European Union. High yields are achieved in northeastern Europe through intensive use of inputs. This year, however, spring chemical applications were disrupted by dryness, and the grain fill period was shortened by high temperatures in June.

Corn Situation

FAS/Washington estimates 2003/04 EU-15 corn production at 34.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.5 million tons from last month, and 13 percent below last year's crop. Harvested area is estimated at 4.3 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month, and 1 percent below last year's level. The yield for this year's crop is estimated to be 7.99 tons per hectare, substantially lower than last year's level of 9.04  tons per hectare.

Corn planting conditions were generally favorable in western Europe this spring, but the summer months have been unusually hot and dry. Most of the corn in western Europe is irrigated, but water shortages have been reported in France and Italy, indicating that yields could be dramatically reduced. The Hanway Growth Model indicates that corn in southern and central France was tasseling in mid to late July, just before the recent heat wave.

Wheat, Corn and Barley Statistics

The tables below represent the details of the official USDA EU-15 grain totals.  The practice of reporting official monthly statistics for each individual country within the EU-15 ended in May 2002.  The numbers that appear below are provided as a convenience to USDA customers, but users are advised that there is no longer an official USDA production estimate for any individual country within the EU-15.  The only official USDA estimates are the EU-15 totals, which are the sums of the individual country statistics listed below. 

Other USDA Resources on the Internet

Web Updates

EU-15:  Oilseed and Rice Forecast by Country, 7/14/03
Germany:  Field Travel Reveals Conditions and Trends, 6/19/03
EU-15:  Grain Forecast by Country, 5/13/03
EU Enlargement:  Eastern Germany Crop Yield Increases Herald Changes in Central Europe, 1/13/03

Global Agriculture Information Network (GAIN) Reports

European Union, Oilseeds and Products Annual, 2003, E23144, 8/1/03
European Union, Grain and Feed Annual 2003, E23086, 6/2/03
European Union, Grain and Feed Semi-Annual 2003, E23001, 1/6/03

Interactive Tools

For crop conditions in the European Union and throughout the world, visit Crop Explorer

For current and historical official USDA data on production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities for the European Union and much of the world, visit PS&D Online

For more information, contact Jim Tringe james.tringe@usda.gov
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202)720-0882