Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THERE IS NO REAL EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE CENTER STILL EXISTS.  NO
WESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW CLOUD MOTION CAN BE DISCERNED ON
NIGHTTIME INFRARED CHANNEL IMAGES...AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS NOT AT ALL CONVINCING.  WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL DATA TO CONFIRM THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DISSIPATED.  IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...IS
ABOUT TO BE DRAWN INTO A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  INDEED...THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING FEATURE AT THIS TIME.  ADDITIONALLY...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE MAY
DISRUPT THE SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER ANTICYCLONE UNDER WHICH THE
DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...OR REGENERATION.  

SATELLITE FIXES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN THE SEEMING ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  INITIAL
MOTION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 14.8N  71.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.8N  73.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.8N  75.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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