Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005

LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30
KT...SO THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY STRONG
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 25-33 KT OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON
STRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  BEYOND 2 DAYS...ASSUMING THAT
THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SHEARING WILL LESSEN AS A RESULT OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THAT REGION.  THE GFDL MODEL
CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY SYSTEMS IN
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...BUT IT NONETHELESS DEMANDS THE FORECASTERS'
RESPECT AS VERY CREDIBLE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AND IS THE
SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER IS NOT
YET WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 295/9.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS RIDGE...AND SLOW THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. 
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL THUS
FAR...SO A SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.  MY OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 13.8N  63.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.4N  64.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.1N  66.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  67.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  69.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.0N  73.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 16.0N  76.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N  79.5W    60 KT
 
 
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