Hurricane EPSILON

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HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
4 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND THE AIRFORCE CONTINUE TO
CLASSIFY EPSILON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE..WITH T NUMBERS 3.0-4.0
FROM SAB AND 3.5-4.0 FROM THE AIRFORCE RESPECTIVELY.  THIS
CORRESPONDS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON...WITH THE STORM
REMAINING IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC..NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE STEERED IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...235/13...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STORM.  
 
THE FORECAST RATIONALE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EPSILON TURNING MORE
TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STORM AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO EPSILONS WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WITH
INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE STORM...WEAKENING IS
LIKELY...WITH EPSILON FALLING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY
THURSDAY.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
 
FORECASTER ORAVEC
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 28.1N  38.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 27.2N  39.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 25.4N  39.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.5N  40.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.6N  40.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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