Tropical Storm EPSILON

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TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005
 
WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND A RAGGED EYE
REMAINS APPARENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
EPSILON HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT.  WHILE THERE IS STILL FAIR
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THERE IS NO
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8.  A LARGE-DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD STEER EPSILON
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS FAR
FROM THE CORE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.  THIS
MEANS EPSILON WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH FASTER THAN IT IS NOW. 
THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. 
BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS...
GFDL...AND CANADIAN ACCELERATING EPSILON NORTHWARD...AND THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF TURNING IT MORE EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD.  GIVEN
THIS SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
EPSILON WILL BE OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK.  THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  EXPERIMENTAL CYCLONE PHASE
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THE TRANSITION
COULD BE DELAYED AS THE COLD FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE IT IS STILL
WELL WEST OF EPSILON.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 32.2N  50.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 33.2N  48.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 34.6N  47.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 35.8N  45.2W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 36.9N  43.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 39.0N  39.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 41.0N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/0000Z 42.5N  31.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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