Tropical Storm EPSILON

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TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005
 
WHILE THE DEPTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED... THE OVERALL INNER AND OUTER CONVECTIVE PATTERNS
HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RAGGED 30 NMI DIAMETER EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 45 KT... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA... RESPECTIVELY. THE LOWER
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE
NOT ALLOWING FOR SOLID BANDING FEATURES ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK
RULES... WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE
EPSILON. HOWEVER... A 30/1008Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 991 MB...
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE... AND THE EYE FEATURE ARE THE
BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT.
 
THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/06. THE MODELS HAVE ALL INDICATED THAT
EPSILON WOULD MOVE WEST AND THEN NORTH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD
...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS INSTEAD MOVED SOUTHWEST AND NOW SOUTHWARD.
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG WRAPAROUND SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A
SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY 36
HOURS. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMING WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... AND IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER... IF EPSILON KEEPS
MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MORE TO THE SOUTH... WHICH COULD RESULT IN EPSILON PASSING
MUCH CLOSER TO THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 120 HOURS AND BEYOND.
 
THE SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS RESULTED IN EPSILON MOVING OVER WARMER
WATER... AS INDICATED BY NEARBY BUOY REPORTS OF 76-77F SSTS. CIRRUS
CLOUD MOTIONS ALSO INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION
IS NEEDED TO MAKE EPSILON A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE WARMEST WATER AND IN THE LOWEST SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS... AFTER WHICH INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING.
HOWEVER... EPSILON IS FORECAST REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 29.8N  54.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 30.5N  54.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 31.1N  53.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 32.1N  51.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 33.2N  50.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  46.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 37.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/1800Z 39.0N  36.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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