Subtropical Depression TWENTY-TWO

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SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL222005
1500Z SAT OCT 08 2005
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.
 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  59.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  59.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  58.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N  60.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 30.4N  63.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.2N  66.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.3N  68.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 36.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 37.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N  59.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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