Tropical Storm ALPHA

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TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
 
HALF OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE WAS VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AS
ALPHA WAS MOVING OUT OF RANGE A COUPLE HOURS AGO...WITH SIMILAR
ROTATION BRIEFLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE VERY COLD TOPS OF ITS CORE
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NO HIGHER
THAN 35 KT AT 00Z...THE RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA COULD
HAVE A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONGER WINDS AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS BEING RAISED TO 45 KT. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE 6 OR SO HOURS BEFORE ALPHA REACHES HISPANIOLA. ALPHA'S SMALL
CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND IS IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT CROSSES THE ISLAND. ASSUMING THAT IT SURVIVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ALPHA WILL FIND ITSELF IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
WILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER CIRCULATIONS MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE
INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.
  
ALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT
OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.7N  70.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.9N  71.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N  72.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  73.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF WILMA
 
 
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