Tropical Storm NATE

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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005
 
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
ROBUST AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -80C.  THE 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT 30-35 KT... AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
IMPRESSIVE SINCE THEN... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
35 KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A VERY RECENT BUOY REPORT OF 30
KT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION.  WHILE
THE GFDL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EVER REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS... WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY UNDERDONE... THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ABOUT 60 HOURS.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE... BUT GIVEN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND... IT IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS SHOWS NATE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

NATE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE SMALL LOW LEVEL
CENTER SEEN EARLIER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED
EASTWARD INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WHICH IS CENTERED
FARTHER EAST.  AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 23Z ALSO SUGGESTED THIS LARGER
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FARTHER EAST... AND RECENT SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY HINTS AT A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS ALL OVER THE PLACE... WITH NOGAPS SHOWING CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION... AS DOES GFDL BUT NOT UNTIL SOME MEANDERING IS COMPLETED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALL WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
LEFT BEHIND BY THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING MARIA FARTHER OUT TO
SEA.  WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO THEN BREAK
DOWN AND FORCE NATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AND IS AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  IT IS SAFE TO SAY THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 28.0N  66.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.1N  67.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 28.3N  67.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 28.6N  68.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 29.1N  69.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  70.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 31.5N  70.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 32.5N  67.5W    60 KT
 
 
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