Hurricane OPHELIA

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HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
0300Z SUN SEP 11 2005
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  75.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  75.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  75.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.7N  75.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N  76.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N  76.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.4N  76.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N  76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N  75.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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