Hurricane OPHELIA

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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005
 
AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA
BEACH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  78.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  78.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  79.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.6N  78.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.0N  77.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N  78.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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