Hurricane OPHELIA

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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
0900Z FRI SEP 09 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  79.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE  75SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  79.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  79.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.9N  78.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.5N  77.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.0N  77.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N  76.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.7N  76.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N  79.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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