Tropical Storm FRANKLIN

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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005
 
THE CIRCULATION OF FRANKLIN HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS
NOW...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
NO CLOSER THAN ABOUT 75 NMI FROM THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR
10Z YESTERDAY HAD SOME 40 KT VECTORS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THEN.  SHIP WCOB RECENTLY REPORTED 29 KT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...SO FRANKLIN IS MOST LIKELY STILL A
TROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES.

AFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD EARLIER IN THE EVENING...FRANKLIN HAS BEEN
MOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY...070/4...IS A SMOOTHED VALUE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON WHAT LIES AHEAD.  FRANKLIN HAS MISSED
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A SECOND
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR
SO...BUT THIS TOO PROBABLY WON'T PICK UP THE CYCLONE.  A THIRD
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DO THE TRICK IN 72-96 HOURS...AND MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS FRANKLIN BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THIS TROUGH BEFORE THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A CONTINUED ERRATIC TRACK IS TO BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION
SHOULD BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  EVEN
WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THIS APPEARS TO LESSEN THE IMMEDIATE THREAT
TO BERMUDA.

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WEAKENING TREND...AND I DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO MAKE ME THINK THIS WILL CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL SEEM TO
WANT TO LESSEN THE SHEAR OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR FRANKLIN...AND IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE WATER UNDERNEATH WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT.  EVEN SO...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE
SHOW CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES
THAT FRANKLIN WILL EITHER BE TOO DISRUPTED BY THEN TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER SHEAR OR IT WILL NOT BE IN THE RIGHT PLACE. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 30.8N  70.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 30.9N  69.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 31.2N  69.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 31.6N  68.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 32.2N  68.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  66.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 37.5N  63.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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