Tropical Storm FRANKLIN

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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005
 
FRANKLIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST
RECON REPORT AROUND 17Z. AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT WAS
REPORTED ABOUT 50 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 1543Z...AND SUBSEQUENT
DROPSONDE WIND PROFLIES ELSEWHERE SUGGEST THAT THE STANDARD 80
PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR MAY BE TOO HIGH AND THAT USING 100 PERCENT
MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE. GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD NOT
FALLEN BELOW 1000 MB ALL DAY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO
THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE RECON WIND AND DROPSONDE DATA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING
STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES
SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE
MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN AND LEAVE AT LEAST
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND BY 36-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS...
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. IF FRANKLIN
REMAINS INTACT AT 72 HOURS...THEN THE SOUTHWARD MOTION IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS.

FRANKLIN COULD STILL BECOME A 65-KT HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STARTS TO
AFFECT THE CYCLONE. EVEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES TURN SOUTHWARD...THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS WHEN THE
200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A SMALL ANTICYCLONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 29.9N  74.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.4N  73.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 30.8N  71.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.2N  69.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.4N  68.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 32.1N  65.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  62.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 35.0N  59.5W    40 KT
 
 
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