Hurricane MARIA

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TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
 
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT MARIA HAS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT
50-55 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS THAT ARE
UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE COMES AND GOES ON SATELLITE
PICTURES WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOL UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES AND SSTS
HOLDING STEADY NEAR 24-25C HAS PROBABLY HELD OFF THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OF MARIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU WERE CORRECT YESTERDAY IN DELAYING THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA AND NOW SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION
SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 988 MB IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PRESSURE FROM BUOY
44901 OF 992.3 MB A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS
ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
AND CIRA ARE ALSO LOWER THAN 990 MB.

MARIA IS SLOWLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING 050/13. THIS ACCELERATION
SHOULD CONTINUE AS MARIA LOSES STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE
IN A DAY OR TWO... WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS LIKELY IN
PLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW
OVER SCANDINAVIA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AT THE INITIAL TIME
USING QUIKSCAT WITH FORECAST RADII USING THE GFS MODEL DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF MARIA. 
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 40.9N  42.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 42.3N  40.7W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 45.1N  38.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 48.5N  35.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 52.0N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 59.0N  26.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 65.0N   8.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     14/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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