Hurricane MARIA

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TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA AND IS
NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYE-LIKE HOLE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER 25C WATER AND
MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THERE WAS NO
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS EVENING TO SHOW IF MARIA IS STILL A
HURRICANE.  BASED ON THE COOLER WATER AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT.  MARIA
SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 36 HR AS IT LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATER...THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  MARIA
SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR 24 HR...THEN
TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 39.7N  45.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 40.7N  44.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 42.3N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 44.8N  39.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 47.6N  37.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 55.0N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 60.0N  29.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     14/0000Z 64.0N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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