Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Get Storm Info
   Satellite | Radar
   Aircraft Recon
   Advisory Archive
   Experimental
   Mobile Products
   E-mail Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   GIS Data | RSS XML/RSS logo
   Help with Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic and E Pacific
   Forecast and
   Analysis Tools

   Help with Marine
Hurricane Awareness
   Be Prepared | Learn
   Frequent Questions
   AOML Research
   Hurricane Hunters
   Saffir-Simpson Scale
   Forecasting Models
   Eyewall Wind Profiles
   Glossary/Acronyms
   Storm Names
   Breakpoints
Hurricane History
   Seasons Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
   Climatology
   Most Extreme
About the NHC
   Mission and Vision
   Personnel | Visitors
   NHC Virtual Tour
   Library
   Joint Hurr Testbed
   The NCEP Centers
Contact UsHelp
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT MARIA IS COMPLETING THE FINAL STAGE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
OVER THE EAST SIDE.  A RATHER LARGE REGION OF MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT...SPREADING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT.  AN EXTENSIVE...SHARP
EDGED...CIRRUS SHIELD IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AS THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH A POLAR JET FINGER.  BASED ON THE
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EVEN YESTERDAY MORNING'S MODERATE
RE-INTENSIFICATION WAS INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION STAGE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS...IT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/11.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 38.3N  48.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 39.4N  46.9W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 41.0N  44.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 42.4N  42.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 44.2N  39.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 48.5N  35.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 54.0N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0600Z 59.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
NHC Active Storms  -  Atlantic and E Pacific Marine  -  Storm Archives
Hurricane Awareness  -  How to Prepare  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Sep-2005 08:55:08 GMT