Hurricane MARIA

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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

THE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE DURING THE DAY.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW GIVE A WIND SPEED OF 90
KT.  AN EXCELLENT TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1556Z SHOWED THAT A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL STRUCTURE WAS DEVELOPING....SO THE STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY
FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST...WHICH
IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.  BY 4 DAYS OR
SOONER...GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW MARIA TRANSFORMING INTO A
LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS AND THIS IS PROBABLY A
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.

MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ADVISORIES.  THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  56.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.6N  56.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 34.9N  55.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 36.3N  53.4W    85 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 37.4N  51.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 40.0N  46.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 43.0N  39.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1800Z 48.0N  33.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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