Hurricane MARIA

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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS BEEN EVIDENT THIS
EVENING... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE
T4.5/77 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.  MARIA STILL
HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.  A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS MARIA MOVES FARTHER NORTH SHOULD INCREASE
THE SHEAR AND BRING ON GRADUAL WEAKENING... UNTIL THE HURRICANE
REACHES COOLER WATERS AND LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11... WHICH IS JUST A BIT TO THE
LEFT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THIS ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON A COUPLE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS... ON CONTINUITY... AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IN GOES IR IMAGERY SINCE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN
CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE SINCE JUST BEFORE SUNSET.  IT ALSO SEEMS THAT
VERY RECENTLY MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY... SO THE ADVISORY
POSITION COULD BE A FEW MILES TOO FAST.  EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE
STARTING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SHOULD OCCUR AS MARIA GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE NORTH AROUND
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. 
THEREAFTER... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AFTER MARIA EMERGES OVER MUCH
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MARIA COULD REMAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 31.0N  56.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 32.4N  57.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.9N  56.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 35.4N  55.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 36.7N  54.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 39.0N  50.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 41.5N  45.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/0000Z 44.0N  38.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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