Hurricane MARIA

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SUPPORT 75-KT WINDS.  SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS LIKELY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...MARIA IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
I HAVE BLENDED THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY BY THEN.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
MARIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA WILL BE RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS
FOR A WHILE.

THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12...PERHAPS 13 KT IN THE
SHORTER TERM.  THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME.  A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA IN ABOUT
48 HOURS.  THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  IN SPITE OF THE FASTER INITIAL
MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 30.3N  56.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 31.7N  56.5W    85 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 33.3N  56.5W    90 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 34.7N  55.9W    90 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 35.8N  54.9W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 38.5N  51.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 41.0N  46.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/1800Z 43.5N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN