Hurricane MARIA

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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT
4.0...CORRESPONDING TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  MARIA HAS
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY IN
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.  THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  IN 4-5 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MARIA WILL BE TRANSFORMING INTO A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/11.  MARIA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. 
A 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND APPROACH MARIA'S LONGITUDE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORWARD SPEED AT 3-5 DAYS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS.  SOME GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW MARIA OR ITS
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION BECOMING WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD.  OTHER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND SHOWS NO ACCELERATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 28.8N  55.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 30.3N  56.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 32.3N  56.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 34.1N  56.1W    80 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 35.9N  54.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 39.0N  50.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  45.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/1200Z 42.5N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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