Tropical Storm MARIA

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TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005
 
MARIA APPEARED TO BE ON THE CUSP OF HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER
TODAY... BUT CONVECTION HAS SINCE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED... ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOW
A LITTLE MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB... AND BOTH
AGENCIES HAVE ANALYZED A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT.  THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO
MAKE A COMEBACK AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO... SO
THE RECENT SPUTTERING MIGHT ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/12 KT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER
AND TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STEERING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF MARIA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... RESULTING IN ONLY A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER... A MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ERODE THE RIDGE... AND ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM NORTH AMERICA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
BEFORE THE RECURVATURE... BUT AS USUAL DIFFER IN THE SUBSEQUENT
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
NOGAPS MODELS WHICH DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE FASTER GFS
THAT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA SEEMINGLY TOO WEAK. THIS IS
JUST A HAIR TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS AND IS FASTER AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
 
MARIA HAD BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT... BENEATH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
AND SINCE THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C DURING THIS
PERIOD... SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED... BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS BEFORE DUE TO THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF AND LESS BULLISH
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT... WHICH IS JUST A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND FAVORS THE
GFDL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS... MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
OF THE RIDGE. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY WEAKENING.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 27.1N  54.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 28.6N  55.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 30.8N  56.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 33.0N  57.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 35.2N  56.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 38.5N  53.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 41.0N  50.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 42.5N  45.0W    55 KT
 
 
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