Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005
 
LATEST SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST
AND SEPARATE ITSELF FROM THE SYSTEM...THEREBY REDUCING THE SHEAR.
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WITH THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING STEADY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE SLOW
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER SHEAR
AND WARMER WATER SHOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...TAKING
THE SYSTEM TO 55 KT AT 120 HOURS WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN
THE 86 KT SHIPS IS FORECASTING AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH
BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS MODEL BEYOND
48 HOURS.  

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 19.0N  46.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.6N  48.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.4N  50.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 21.2N  52.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 22.1N  54.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N  57.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 26.5N  59.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.0N  60.5W    55 KT
 
 
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