Hurricane PHILIPPE

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
PHILIPPE IS MUCH EASIER TO FIND THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE CENTER IS
EXPOSED JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT DVORAK DATA T
NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. 
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE POOR SATELLITE
APPEARENCE...PHILIPPE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM ON
THIS ADVISORY. 
 
AGAIN THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL SURVIVE THE
CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR AND REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM.  THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL LOCATION. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS CLOSELY. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS. 
 
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF PHILIPPE 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR. IT SEEMS THAT THE GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LOW TOO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...SO
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MIGHT NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS SOON
AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY BY ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE A
LITTLE...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL STORM TO SLOWLY RESTRENGTHEN IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE ONCE AND FOR ALL.

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 18.8N  57.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N  57.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.8N  58.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  59.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 26.5N  59.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 32.0N  60.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 37.5N  54.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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