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Tropical Storm KIKO
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 14(29) 7(36) 1(37)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 13(27) 6(33) 1(34)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 1(21)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 2(19) 1(20)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 5(11) 6(17) 3(20) 6(26) 1(27) 1(28)
MANZANILLO 34 4 3( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20)
L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 7(21) 4(25) 1(26)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 11(31) 9(40) 1(41) 1(42)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 181N 1064W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 181N 1064W 50 17 9(26) 1(27) 1(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30)
12 181N 1064W 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 190N 1073W 34 25 40(65) 9(74) 5(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81)
24 190N 1073W 50 1 16(17) 10(27) 3(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33)
24 190N 1073W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
36 197N 1078W 34 4 36(40) 21(61) 8(69) 4(73) 1(74) X(74)
36 197N 1078W 50 X 6( 6) 14(20) 7(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30)
36 197N 1078W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
48 205N 1085W 34 1 12(13) 27(40) 17(57) 8(65) 1(66) 1(67)
48 205N 1085W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28)
48 205N 1085W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11)
72 210N 1095W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 20(40) 11(51) 4(55) 1(56)
72 210N 1095W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) 3(22) X(22)
72 210N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
96 215N 1115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 13(26) 8(34) 1(35)
96 215N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
96 215N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
120 220N 1145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
120 220N 1145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
120 220N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 65 75 75 65 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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