Tropical Storm LIDIA

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TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT.  DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING
HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE SOME 300 N MI TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE LATTER SYSTEM MAY BE DISRUPTING SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO LIDIA.  ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...BECAUSE THE NEIGHBORING DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH THE STORM.  THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN
270/4.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED...AND
THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA IS
PROBABLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.  THE GFS DOES NOT
INITIALIZE LIDIA PROPERLY...AND SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH
THE NOGAPS RUN...WHICH...BECAUSE OF ITS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE...
AT LEAST STARTS THE STORM IN ABOUT THE CORRECT LOCATION.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 12.4N 116.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 12.7N 117.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 13.2N 118.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 13.5N 119.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 14.0N 120.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 121.0W    45 KT
 
 
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