Hurricane MAX

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005

MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE.  MAX'S DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE NUMBERED...AS A
CONTINUED SPINDOWN OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED.  MAX IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...IF
PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED TOMORROW
MORNING.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME QUITE WEAK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ABOUT 290/3.  A LARGE TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS LIKELY TO
KEEP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE QUITE WEAK
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS MAX WEAKENS...IT IS RESPONDING
MAINLY TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...AND THERE IS ONLY AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A MAINLY WESTWARD DRIFT
IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MOTION
THEREAFTER.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 21.8N 121.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 122.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.6N 123.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 21.3N 123.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 124.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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