Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
WELL DEFINED BANDING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT
THE OUTER BANDING ELSEWHERE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A WARMING PHASE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT. A RESENT SSMIS
OVERPASS AT 1729 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE NE OF CURRENT
POSITION...AND AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT PACKAGE.  
 
THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEREAFTER
JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND DIGGING SE WITH TIME. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY
ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.5N 139.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 140.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 13.2N 141.7W    95 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 13.9N 142.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 14.6N 143.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N 147.3W    70 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N 149.0W    65 KT
 
 
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