Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN
IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTER BANDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.
 
THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
AIR MASS.  THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 12.2N 137.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W    90 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W    70 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W    60 KT
 
 
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