Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AQUA-1 MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION OF THE OUTER BANDS THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE
INNER CORE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER COMPACT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL
AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. 
THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  THE
SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8.  THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JOVA IN A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD
MOTION AND BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA AND CONU
CONSENSUS MODELS AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 12.3N 136.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W    80 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W    60 KT
 
 
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