Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT
STORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY.  AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW AN EYE AND EYEWALL
UNDERNEATH THE CDO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM
TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND THE
ORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE AMSU IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY 
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED
AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND THE NOW
EVEN SLOWER GFS GFDL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.
 
JOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIGHT.  THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR
AT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  AFTER 36-48 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN
COOLING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL AND GFDN
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN FOLLOWS SHIPS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 12.4N 136.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 12.2N 137.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 12.3N 139.6W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 141.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 13.2N 142.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 146.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W    60 KT
 
 
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