Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT
STORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TOPS TO -80C NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS AN EYE IS
PRESENT UNDER THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77
KT FROM TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  THERE
IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48
HR OR SO...THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER
NOGAPS AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GFDL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

JOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIGHT.  THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR
AT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  AFTER 36 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN COOLING
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 12.8N 135.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 12.7N 136.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 12.8N 138.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W    80 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 13.5N 141.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W    60 KT
 
 
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