Tropical Storm JOVA

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TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

JOVA HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 24 HR...WITH AN INCREASE IN
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY A DIURNAL
DECREASE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
55 KT.

JOVA IS MOVING TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...260/13.  A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED
AFTER THAT TIME.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FASTER.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU.

JOVA IS OVER 28C WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT. 
THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR 48-72 HR.  THE GFDN
BRING THE STORM TO 121 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR 90 KT
IN 48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THIS...CALLING FOR 80 KT IN 72 HR...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
THE SHIPS FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...JOVA SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN.  THE NOGAPS AND GFS
SUGGEST THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR THAN INDICATED IN
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THAT HAPPENS JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 13.0N 132.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W    60 KT
 
 
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