Tropical Storm JOVA

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TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN JOVA'S STRUCTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T3.0...45 KT...FROM
TAFB AND T2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM
0230Z WHICH SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS
JOVA UP TO 93 KT IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 65 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS IN PEAKING JOVA AT 65 KT AT
48 AND 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATER WITH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING SLOW WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL WEAKEN JOVA TO 50 KT BY 120 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH INDICATES DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HRS...TAKING THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS MODEL REMAINS AS A 
SOUTHERN OUTLIER...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IS
FOR A SLOWER MOTION IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS JOVA SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS A BIT
SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT FASTER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 13.7N 129.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 13.7N 130.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.6N 133.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 13.6N 135.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.6N 137.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 14.0N 141.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 144.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W    55 KT
 
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